My Theory of Probability

16 05 2008

The world we live can be predicted. Every event that happens is predictable. Like a good chess player, if you think many steps beyond your opponent, then you can predict what they might do and prevent them from winning. The world operates in the same way.

Everytime you flip a coin you think the outcome is random right? The actual answer is no if you think about it. If the first time you flip a coin you might either get a head or tail, if you flip again but have every condition be the same, like amount of energy used to flip the coin, air pressure, wind, temperature, and so on, then you would get the exact same result. Why? Because if you think about it nothing has changed. Its like a computer program, it acts the way it does because it has been told exactly what to do.

It is just like throwing a knife and catching it on the handle, I know it’s possible because I can do it. Like flipping a coin its not how you catch it, its how you throw it. Somethings will have a high error state, which means it is easily influenced by factors, like flipping a coin. Even a tiny amount of force can change it from being heads to tails. Things that have low error state are things like taking an apple from a crate of apples. there is a very small chance that your going to get a pear because there are not many ways a pear can get into a box of apples.

If you flipped a coin with a machine in a lab, program the machine to use exactly a certain amount of force to flip the coin, have the coin start in on the same side every time, and finally flip the coin in a vacuum condition, I guarantee you the coin will land on the exact same side every time. This is why I think that way: if you use a set amount of force every time to flip a coin then the coin will rotate exactly the same number of times every time. The vacuum will prevent other factors like wind, temperature, and other factors from affecting it. Given these conditions that you have it is almost impossible for anything else to happen. Because it is a vacuum that means it will land exactly the same way every time given that everything stays constant.

All this is just an interesting thought I came upon while thinking on the way from the bus stop to my home. Its funny how you could think of the most amazing things while walking 😀




One response

20 05 2008

I’d have to disagree. Before the quantum theory was introduced, all physicists thought that the future could be predicted exactly if they knew all the forces and matter and positions of matter in the universe. The quantum theory, however, stated that it was impossible to know all this. Einstein may have denied the quantum theory with his famous quote, “God does not play dice with the universe.” However, quantum mechanics is a very well-tested theory, and modern scientists (such as Stephen Hawking) agree with it.

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